Japan's earthquake March 2011 – a rallying call?

What is likely to be the impact on Japan of the devastating March 11, 2011 earthquake and horrendous tsunami?  Is it likely to be a rallying cry for Japan, which will enable its energies to be channelled into resolving the issues that the economy faces? What is not at issue, is that the areas requiring mitigation are all well identified and debated within Japan. What is missing, on the other hand, is resolution of a way forward and implementation of the chosen measures.

How might the earthquake jolt the psyche of the Japanese? I think you can gain some sense from what happened on the day of the event.  I happened to be in Tokyo for a business trip that week.  Tremors in Japan, usually mild short lived ones, with little sensation other than a brief rattling of a window, occur from time to time.  A more noticeable tremor occurs less frequently but over the years I have experienced some of these too.  There is a fair bit of seismic activity in Japan. Just last month on my way home from Tokyo, Japan’s Shinmoedake volcano located in Kyushu erupted causing airlines to divert  their flight paths.  January 2011 saw the volcano erupt for the first time in 52 years. In the days just before March 11, I experienced an earthquake in Tokyo  whose intensity and duration was unnerving but tolerable.  Japanese people around me took this in their stride. 

But March 11 was different.

In a building adjacent to Tokyo station between meetings, I had ducked into one of Tokyo’s leading bookstores to kill a few minutes. Suddenly the quake started and you could feel the floor vibrating in a vertical movement. I looked around and all the Japanese people close to me registered that it was indeed an earthquake. Then the intensity increased and the vertical motion was overlaid with increasing horizontal oscillating movements as the building started to sway from side to side. Books fell off the shelves and stands fell over, the PA system announced that there was an earthquake occurring (I sort of gathered that) and lifts and escalators were shut down. Everyone crouched down.  It seemed to go on for minutes.

There was no panic.

I spoke to two Japanese people near me, a young guy, and we consoled each other with “this certainly was a big shake.” The second person was a Japanese grandmother. She told me that in her 70 years of living in Tokyo this was the most intense she could remember.

When the quake had passed, I made it down the 5 flights and out into the open. People were trickling out of many buildings and trying to phone to check their family and friends, but the mobile voice network was out. Only land lines appeared to be working. Walking into Tokyo station, the JR network had already been shutdown (JR has a sophisticated control system not only to enable the trains to run on time but also to cope with accidents and disasters such as quakes) The station guards had wheeled out TV screens where the  television networks were already broadcasting the quake updates and news including the sickening footage of the tsunami in northern Japan. People stood in silence watching the events unfold on the screens.

A second substantial shock soon occurred and at this stage there appeared to be a mass exodus from the offices and with no trains, no subways, freeways closed,  all the habitual millions of taxis one usually associates with Tokyo seemed to have been swallowed up. Everywhere you could see people were walking, tens of thousands of them.  It was quite a surreal picture for a leading international city.

Still there was no panic.

In the ensuing days, after returning  to Australia I checked, by phone or email, with many Japanese business colleagues about their own safety and their family’s.  Common sentiments in response were:

“we must stick together to rebuild”

“Please tell our mutual friends there that life in Tokyo is normal, the government is working as supposed to and the local communities of the hard-hit areas are working absolutely admirably and surprisingly effectively.  Just keep your eyes on how Japan works in this situation.”

“this [the tsunami devastation] feels like a once in 1000 year event”

If any country can mobilize and motivate its population to endure, Japan must be counted among the top of them.  Thus the turnaround may well be surprisingly rapid.

At the same time, this quake will accelerate the need for change and reform. Paradoxically, some of Japan’s greatest reforms have come about by what they refer to as ‘gaiatsu’ -  outside pressure. In this case, the earthquake and tsunami might just be another gaiatsu episode forcing change.